Fed, October 28, 2026: rates on hold, two votes for a hike

The Fed’s monetary policy committee (the FOMC) kept its rate range at 3.75%-4%, the level it reached in September with a quarter-point hike. The statement came out at 2 p.m. New York time, and the vote was not unanimous: ten for, two against. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both wanted to raise the rate by a quarter point.

Two details in the text drew attention. Activity is now expanding at a “strong” pace, where September spoke of a “solid” one. And inflation is still described as elevated, with a new sentence: the committee wants more information before setting what comes next. According to Fortune, Hammack’s vote was expected, Cook’s much less so: previews had named other officials.

According to Yahoo Finance’s live coverage, stocks barely moved after the statement, and the US 10-year yield rose about 5 basis points, to 5.04%, ahead of Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. I am writing an hour after the announcement: the Wall Street close is not known yet, and I give no NQ figure I cannot source.

The Fed was not the evening’s only event. Microsoft and Alphabet, two heavyweights of the Nasdaq 100, reported after the close. For an NQ trader, that is an evening with two releases: the overnight futures session and the open on Thursday, October 29 will carry both at once, with no way to tell which move comes from which. I draw no forecast from it.

A trap that comes back every autumn: Europe switched to winter time on Sunday, October 25, 2026, and the United States will only do so on Sunday, November 1. This week, the gap between Paris and New York is five hours instead of six. The Fed spoke at 7 p.m. in Paris and Geneva, not 8 p.m., and the New York stock market opens at 2:30 p.m. Paris time, not 3:30 p.m.

It sounds minor. But if your alarms or trading hours are set in Paris time, you reach the open an hour late all week. ICT killzones are defined in New York time: that is the clock that counts, not the one on your phone. Our time pages convert it to your time zone, clock changes included.

On a Fed day, my session is still the morning one. FTS Liquidity Sweep Pro does its usual job there: it spots the moment price takes the liquidity below a low or above a high, then flags the break of structure that follows. It draws no stop and no target, and it does not know a release is coming: checking the calendar before the session is my job.

The diagram below is not a capture: it shows the shape of a Fed day as I live it. A sweep of the low and a signal in the morning, a position closed well before 2 p.m., then the announcement candle taking both sides of the afternoon range. A signal can appear in that candle, since liquidity really was taken; I read it as a marker, not an invitation.

According to the Fed’s calendar, the next decision comes on Wednesday, December 9, 2026, with the committee members’ economic projections. Rate futures were pricing a high probability of a hike there, according to Bloomberg data cited by Yahoo Finance; that is not a Fed forecast, and it is not one of mine. Before that, the US jobs report comes out on Friday, November 6 and inflation on Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. New York time, which is 2:30 p.m. in Paris once the clocks line up again.

Another announcement from the press conference: in 2027, the Fed keeps eight meetings, but one of them will be devoted to strategy, with no rate vote and no statement, according to Kevin Warsh’s remarks reported by Yahoo Finance. The official calendar does not say which one yet, so our time tool shows all eight dates. My rule does not change: I check the releases before the session, and when the stop has to be wider, I cut size with the calculator.